Australia’s population recently hit a milestone.
According to the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australia’s population grew by 2.3 per cent to 27.1 million people in March 2024.
Canada and New Zealand, which have similar migration programs to Australia, experienced population growth above Australia’s over the year to March 2024, at 3.2 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively.
The bulk of the population increase (83 per cent) came from migration. Annual net overseas migration in the year to March 2024 was 509,800 people, down from a peak of 559,900 in September 2023.
Simon Kuestenmacher, Co-Founder and Director at The Demographics Group and a speaker at next month’s Property Congress, said we will continue to see overseas migration levels trend downwards.
“Migration will go down. Because the only reason there’s now more migration than compared to, let’s call it the four-year average before the pandemic, is that we have taken in heaps more international students.
“The reason we are taking in more international students is that for quite a while, we did not take any international students in, and so we are now filling up all those available spots for international students.
“But ultimately those spots are full now, so we will see the migration number fall down to roughly the pre pandemic level, which is more or less 250,000 net new migrants per year.”
In July 2024 there were 132,970 international student arrivals to Australia, an increase of 1,330 students compared with the corresponding month of the previous year, according to the ABS.
However, this was 7.6 per cent lower than the pre-COVID levels in July 2019.
“What you would always want to do, statistically speaking, is average out those numbers from the beginning of the pandemic until now,” Mr Kuestenmacher said.
“What is the average? Compare this to the exact average of the same length before the pandemic, and you will see that we are slightly below those pre pandemic averages.”
Departures are also lower. There were 209,000 departures over the 12 months to March 2024 compared to 286,000 departures over the 12 months to March 2019.
Mr Kuestenmacher said some of the difference can also be attributed to international students.
“We didn’t take in international students for three years, so they can’t leave yet because they have to sit through a full degree.”
Interstate migration is below pre-pandemic levels, with interstate moves over the year to March 2024 (369,000) 21 per cent below the year to March 2019. There was also a net flow of 31,000 residents moving from capital cities to regions over the year to March 2024, a decline from highs seen during the pandemic.
Mr Kuestenmacher said there’s still appetite for the regions, as long as it’s within a two-hour drive time radius from a major CBD.
“Because we saw a bit of a population surge in the regions over the pandemic years, these markets are now full.
“And so, the argument is, if you happen to be a regional center within a two-hour drive time radius…. you could grow if you wanted to, at the moment. If you were to somehow provide enough housing, have enough jobs, then the population would come at the moment.”