Flying taxis, rescue and delivery drones, and more than 24,000 remote pilot licenses by 2023. Five experts give us the low-down as drones take to the skies.
Ride sharing giant Uber is planning with an air taxi trial in Melbourne. Google’s sister company Wing is delivering takeaway and over-the-counter medicines to Canberra homes. More than 50 ‘rescue’ drones are saving lives across Australian beaches.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that urban air mobility will be a $4 trillion industry before 2040. An autonomous aircraft is “an easier software problem to solve than an autonomous car,” Morgan Stanley argues.
But drone-causing chaos at London’s Gatwick Airport last Christmas sent a warning signal to the rest of the world. And closer to home, “obnoxious” drone noise has prompted a national review.
Where are we heading with drones? And what does this mean for our cities?
Dr Chris De Gruyter
Centre for Urban Research, RMIT
“There’s no doubt that drones are being increasingly used for a wider range of applications. In terms of passenger transport, Uber recently announced plans for ‘flying taxis’ to be used for transporting people in Melbourne. Labelled Uber Air, the initiative will be tested next year, with commercial operations expected by 2023. While the aircraft are expected to operate with a pilot initially, Uber is planning to use autonomous (pilotless) aircraft in the longer term.
“While such initiatives could broaden the transport options that are available to Melburnians, the big question is what kind of trips they will be used for. More than half of trips in metropolitan Melbourne – seven million a day out of 13 million – are less than 5km, according to latest available travel survey data. Only 13 per cent of trips are more than 20km and less than two per cent are more than 50km.
“It’s unlikely that initiatives such as Uber Air are going to help with managing our urban transport problems. These aircraft are very low capacity – similar to what a car could carry – so you would need a lot of them in the sky to have a noticeable effect on traffic congestion. There are also questions about if these aircraft will create visual clutter in the sky and how environmentally-friendly they are. Another risk is ‘empty running’, where there are no passengers, but the vehicle has to travel to pick people up from another location.”
Dr Catherine Ball
Director, Aerospace Institute and Founder, World of Drones Education
“The commercial drone industry has a massive opportunity in the ‘drones for good’ space, with humanitarian and social-good uses of drones becoming more mainstream. The maturation of the counter-drone ecosystem, the advent of unmanned traffic management, or UTM, and the greater awareness of this technology with decision-makers and politicians all add up to more regular acceptance of this versatile technology.
“In five years’ time I can see us having a flying car/human transport capability in certain cities in Australia and large household names like the Royal Flying Doctors, Telstra, state and federal police and emergency services, and rail and road agencies will be using them. Certain humanitarian aspects such as delivery of medicines to remote, regional, and emergency or disaster affected areas will be mainstream.
“I can also see a pushback against recreational use, with hobbyists being restricted to ‘drone parks’ or allocated flying areas. Not all drones are equal, and neither are all drone users. Public safety and personal privacy will remain top concerns.”
Adam Beck
Executive Director, Smart Cities Council Australia New Zealand
“I like to think about drones as an accelerator of the triple-bottom line. They are delivering social value, from saving lives on the northern beaches of Sydney to being the first responders in California’s City of Chula Vista. They are a critical partner enabling planetary saving work underwater on the Great Barrier Reef, and in the remote landscapes of Tasmania. And last, but not least, they are unleashing greater productivity within the marketplace, with the property sector being one of many realising substantial benefits, along with mining and agriculture.
“I believe drones are a ‘gateway drug’ to a deeper digital transformation starting to emerge within the built environment, with one of the key functions of the drone being data ingestion, through image capture. The productivity dividend coming from the back end (predictive) analytics, and its benefit to asset due diligence, construction and maintenance cannot be underestimated. Use cases so far confirm the drone is standard toolbox equipment. And after we digitally twin our cities, the data streams from drones add intelligence to city performance like never before seen.”
Luke Gumley
Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems Branch Manager, Civil Aviation Safety Authortiy
“Remotely piloted aircraft – more commonly known as drones – represent a considerable and growing sector of aviation in Australia and of CASA’s activity. It’s difficult to predict where these numbers might go, and where we’ll reach saturation point for what the market can sustain, but if we look at licensing, by 2023 based on current trends, we could see a total of 24,000 remote pilot licences in Australia.
“Drones are already being used in a number of remarkable ways including a drone delivery service in Canberra which delivers food items and over the counter pharmaceutical products. It’s conceivable that drone delivery services will expand exponentially, and that other drone delivery services will be seen in other cities and towns across Australia soon
“Certifying urban air mobility vehicles and approving their operations in Australia is a highly complex task with many matters we need to resolve including airspace management, specialised training for the ‘pilots’ operating the aircraft and infrastructure design standards for vehicle ports. CASA has experience in working with innovative operators to ensure that their proposed operations can be done safely and lawfully.
“Safety is always our number one priority and the public should have confidence that we will review any requests from new operators. We will carefully assess all of the safety and regulatory matters within our remit before providing an operator with any permissions.”
Peter Carney
Head of Innovation and Product Development, Supply Chain Solutions, Toll Group
“There is no question that drones are an excellent tool for aerial surveillance. There are a lot of obstacles to be overcome, however, before drones could become a delivery mechanism to everyday residences. Among these obstacles are payload, flight duration, safety, noise and community acceptance. Drones may be able to be part of a system for remote area deliveries, where noise is less of a problem and duel-fuelled drones – battery and conventionally fuelled – could address range and payload limitations. Toll’s parent company, Japan Post, is trialling deliveries by drone between two post offices in Fukushima Prefecture. We will be watching this trial with interest.”