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Chief Executive | Housing undershoot forecast

  • May 08, 2024
  • by Mike Zorbas
The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council has released its ‘State of the Housing System 2024’ annual report

Last week the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council gave us all fair and thoughtful warning.

We will only build 943,000 of the 1,200,000 homes we need by 2029.

The Council’s State of the Housing System 2024 proposes 10 areas for improving our housing system: adequate investment in social housing; reducing homelessness; improving rental market outcomes for tenants; improving efficiency in the land use and planning systems; boosting capacity in the construction sector; improving data availability; addressing regional‑specific housing challenges; improving First Nations housing outcomes; reviewing the suitability of the national housing target; and ensuring Australia’s taxation system supports supply and affordability.

In the report’s own words, we need more housing of all types – social housing through to market home ownership.

The golden levers here are planning efficiency, land release and last mile infrastructure and governments are finally starting to understand this.

Then there is the fastest way for the government to introduce high-quality new homes to take pressure off the broader market – purpose-built student accommodation, retirement living communities and build-to-rent (BTR) housing.

On BTR housing, the federal government currently has a unique opportunity to replicate overseas success through the legislation it is reviewing in the next fortnight.

If executed well, reforming the withholding tax rate for BTR housing will create 160,000 new homes by 2033.

Yesterday’s VIC budget doesn’t help

I’m being careful to quote a Victorian here.

Said our Victorian Executive Director, Cath Evans, in abridged form:

The Allan Government’s continuation of the uncompetitive tax status quo will only preserve the hostile investment environment in Victoria that is driving capital to find – and very literally build – a home somewhere else.

The fundamental drivers of the housing affordability crisis are a critical lack of new supply and increasingly intense demand driven by population growth.

We recognise the extent of the challenges the State is dealing with and it is critical that the Government continues the dialogue with the property industry to work through the short and long term issues together.

Sounds eminently reasonable.

Next week – what needs to happen on BTR housing