Making sense of the census

Making sense of the censusAustralia’s 2016 Census counted 23.4 million people, an increase of 8.8 per cent since 2011. But the story varies from state to state, and from city to city.Australia’s population has more than doubled in the years since the 1966 Census, which counted 11.6 million people. An additional two million people have called Australia home since 2011.Population is the first in Treasury’s “three Ps” model of economic growth, standing alongside participation and productivity. The 2015 Intergenerational Report found population growth will account for almost half of the nation’s projected economic growth over the next 40 years.New South Wales remains our most populous state, increasing by 8.1 per cent in the last five years to 7.4 million. Victoria isnow home to 5.9 million (10.7% increase) and Queensland boasts 4.7 million people (8.6% increase).”Driving Victoria’s status as the fastest growing state is jobs growth and housing affordability,” says the Property Council’s executive director in Victoria, Sally Capp. “Last year’s forecast of 100,000 new residents was blown out of the water by the actual number of 127,000. “Nevertheless, Victoria is experiencing ‘growing pains’ with increasing demands on infrastructure and services such as education and health. Increasing density is key, with 70 per cent of the growing population to live and work in existing suburbs.” Sydney now has 4.8 million residents, although Melbourne, with 4.5 million, is expected to become Australia’s largest city by the middle of the century.The Property Council’s NSW executive director Jane Fitzgerald says the census highlights Sydney’s “growth spurt” of 9.8 per cent since 2011.”It is vital that we continue to plan for this growth and we have enough homes and jobs to meet growing demand,” she says.More Sydneysiders are choosing urban apartment living, as apartment dwellers rose from 25.8 per cent in 2011 to 28.1 per cent in 2016. This trend demands “long term planning for high quality community experiences in denser environments,” Fitzgerald adds.The ACT experienced the fastest population growth over the past five years, rising by 11.2 per cent to 406,403 people.ACT executive director Adina Cirson says the statistics indicate that Canberra’s housing market will continue to grow, based on demand alone. But the ACT faces some “looming policy challenges”, Cirson says, namely housing affordability and diversity of housing stock. Of the 6,000-odd new building approvals over the last year, half are for semi-detached housing and townhouses, which Cirson says is a good sign.In Queensland, population growth has been driven by interstate migration, says executive director Chris Mountford.”While Brisbane has grown by 9.9 per cent since the last census, the major growth has been in other parts of south east Queensland where a lot of greenfield development has taken place in recent years,” Mountford explains.The Gold Coast has grown by 12.4 per cent, while there are now 19.1 per cent more residents living in Buderim and 15.6 per cent more in Caloundra, both on the Sunshine Coast.On the other hand, South Australia is competing with Tasmania for the slowest growth rate in the country, with both states chalking up five per cent increases.”Our state’s population growth rate is low and we have the highest median age in mainland Australia, and when combined this poses a medium-term economic risk,” South Australian executive director Daniel Gannon points out.”We share a border with Victoria and a fierce AFL rivalry, but that’s where the commonalities end as its growth rate is almost 2 per cent stronger than ours.”Gannon says “that’s not good enough”, arguing that the South Australian Government needs a commitment to population growth “before it’s too late”.Tasmania’s executive director Brian Wightman agrees.”The state government is currently aiming to grow our population to 6,000 by 20, which is about the size of the Gold Coast today,” Wightman says.”We will get to 6,000 without even trying. We don’t think this is ambitious enough and the state government should ramp up its efforts with targeted strategies.”Population growth has slowed in the Top End too. While Northern Territorians now number nearly 229,000 an eight per cent increase, Ruth Palmer says this growth has been “at a snail’s pace”.”The slowing of industries such as oil and gas have left the Northern Territory with the highest dwelling vacancy rate in the country at 14.1 per cent. Rents have also increased by 40 per cent since 2011, while rental income has only increased by 18.5 per cent.”Palmer says the Northern Territory needs to “act quickly” to implement a raft of initiatives, such as the Revitalise Darwin CBD program, which “has the potential to reenergise the CBD, boosting tourism and private sector investment and create long-term employment opportunities for Territorians”.Meanwhile Western Australia has enjoyed strong population growth, which saw its citizens grow by 10.5 per cent over the last five years.However, the state is saddled with the highest proportion of households with mortgages, something which Lino Iacomella says “highlights the importance of housing markets and growth in WA.”The census reveals that 39.7 per cent of WA households have a mortgage, compared to the national average of 34.5 per cent.Iacomella says this means households in his state are more sensitive to “factors that impact homebuying, including access to housing finance, the supply and diversity of new housing and the strength of local real estate markets”.”Recently growth has slowed down in the West but the census shows why the WA Government should focus policies on maintaining strong population growth which will also contribute to a strong housing market,” Iacomella adds.