Hope on the horizon for WA housing market

Hope on the horizon for WA housing marketWA’s residential property market is hurting due to the mining downturn, but sea- and tree-change drivers may take away some of the sting.The post-mining boom downturn may not spell doom for WA’s property market.Evidence is emerging of sea- and tree-change shifts, which may bolster the western state’s fortunes.Reviewing Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population growth data, CoreLogic RP Data found WA was still over-represented in the top 10 locales for population growth during 2014. Of the top 10 locales, four were in WA.Serpentine-Jarrahdale, south of Perth, posted the greatest growth at 6.8 per cent. Its median house price grew with it, by 4.9 per cent over the period.Armadale, a leafy suburb on the south-eastern outskirts of Perth, also recorded strong population growth of 5.2 per cent and even higher median house price growth of 9.6 per cent.By comparison, the ABS reported national population growth of 1.6 per cent over the 12 months to June 2014.WA also recorded the fastest population growth of any state or territory over the year, at 2.2 per cent. CoreLogic RP Data research analyst Cameron Kusher says most of the areas listed as the fastest-growing regions are close to capital cities where large greenfield regions exist, particularly around NSW, Victoria and WA. Outside of the metro areas, there is a strong rate of growth across WA’s South West markets, which can be characterised as both sea-change and tree-change localities.”Rockingham, Busselton, Capel, Waroona, Murray and Augusta-Margaret River are all lifestyle markets located south of Perth,” Kusher says. “Each of these markets is among the 25 regions with the fastest rate of population growth over the past year.”Of the 25 fastest-growing council areas, only Gladstone in Queensland has recorded a fall in median house prices over the year.”Generally, a growing population will fuel housing demand and result in higher property prices. However, as the Gladstone example shows, a high rate of population growth is not necessarily guaranteed to increase prices,” Kusher says.However, WA was also over-represented for population decline. CoreLogic RP Data’s analysis found eight of the top 10 slowest-growing locales in Australia were in WA. All recorded negative growth and the list was dominated by mining and remote rural townships.CoreLogic RP Data predicts the national rate of population growth will continue to slow over the coming year as the rate of overseas immigration continues to moderate. “A large discrepancy is emerging between the rate of population growth in capital cities and regional areas, again something which is likely to continue,” Kusher says. “It will be interesting to watch the trend towards stronger population growth in lifestyle regions like south-west WA and to also note if over the coming years this trend is replicated in other sea-change and tree-change areas.”