Ruth Palmer, Executive Director NT, Property Council of Australia
2021 was another year of uncertainties. Covid, the economy, tourism, population, housing, and jobs have all been, and remain, unpredictable.
There is no clear indication of what will happen now as we enter 2022, or how we, the Territory, will benefit. We are at risk of losing residents now that NSW and Victoria are open for business.
We know that existing growth policies do not work. Incentives to live, work, and play in the Territory have failed. The population strategy is out of date and does not address contemporary issues.
For us, we take this seriously, but we aren’t just talking about it, we are actioning it. With long term strategic growth and a sustainable population plan, the entire Territory benefits.
That is why we have commissioned a report “Opportunities when borders open – a renewed NT population strategy – recovery and beyond.” A report that we will release in the coming weeks.
Not only will this report outline the key economic priorities to underpin growth and jobs, it will provide analysis on the population scenarios. Initial modelling has shown that if we continue the current level of growth we saw before COVID-19, the NT population over the next 10 years will grow by only 6,652 people. In ten years! That is a number well below the current Treasury forecasts.
Our high growth analysis assumes a population increase 1.42 percent each year. This scenario would add 30,700 individuals in ten years. Increasing the population would improve economic production by $20 billion over 10 years and create 23,000 jobs.
Our high population growth scenario will also result in an increase of dwelling demand approx 11,5 and 1.1 billion dollar dwelling investment by 2031.
We can all agree that we managed the pandemic with minimal limitations, but the closure of interstate and international borders has hampered the economy, particularly tourism and hospitality.
The Northern Territory’s GDP shrank by 0.6% in 2020-21, to $26.2 billion, after growing by 6.0% in 2019-20. This largest decrease of any state of territory.
We need to implement initiatives to boost medium-long term population growth. Recruiting and retaining skilled workers will be critical to the Territory’s economic revival.
A Renewed Population Strategy: Recovery and Beyond should be a key plank of the NT’s economic development strategy post COVID-19.
A sustainable and growing population will be imperative to underpin future workforce needs and support business confidence, growth and investment.
We are already facing skill shortages in many occupations and without increased investments in training by industry and government combined with an aggressive migration strategy we will likely face serious skill shortages and skill gaps which will impact on our economic growth.
Over the next five years we should aim to:
- double the intake of independent skilled migrants and better target to skills in demand
- reduce the loss of young people and families interstate to net zero
- attract a growing share of business migrants and business investment in key sectors
- better support humanitarian migration into the Territory
- increase the level of ‘chain migration’
- reboot international education and aim to increase international student numbers to10,000
- provide increased support to families with improvements in liveability and housing affordability to support strong population growth.
While population growth is important for economic growth so too are increases to productivity and investment to increase our living standards.
The Population Strategy therefore needs to be an integral part of a broader economic development platform.
It also must include liveability and how and why people want to live here.
It is housing affordability, it is education, healthcare, quality and appropriate infrastructure, lifestyle amenities and importantly, safety. Every territorian should feel safe in their homes and om the streets. Crime and antisocial behaviour is often a white elephant.
We need to send a clear message that we do not, and we will not accept unacceptable behaviour in our streets. It is time this is actioned, and this behaviour is reversed.
If want to keep people in the Territory including our own children, then we need to pull the handbrake on unacceptable behaviour. This isn’t just a night time occurrence, this is happening through the day and the night.
We want safe streets for our younger generation, as ultimately that is what will encourage them to stay and raise their own families.
Our population strategy will not be a document that sits on a shelf, it will be a report with high level analysis and key recommendations backed by modelling, trends and scenarios. It will be a plan that can be implemented and actioned immediately.
As we often say; failing to plan is planning to fail.