ANZ/Property Council Survey June 2019

The ANZ/Property Council survey for the June 2019 Quarter has shown a six-year low in property industry confidence levels, with the fourth consecutive quarterly decline, it is at the lowest level since March 2013 falling by eight points to 115 index points.

Over the past 12 months, industry sentiment has dropped by 28 index points, with the biggest falls in Victoria (-33), NSW (-32) and Queensland (-26), with the ACT experiencing the smallest decline during the period (-7).

Ken Morrison, Chief Executive of the Property Council of Australia has said “the key message for policy-makers is to keep a sharp focus on the property industry and be prepared to step up with a housing contingency plan if that’s what the economy needs.”

The key findings include:

  • Expectations around national economic growth fell sharply to their lowest level since the survey began in 2011, down by 16 index points on the previous quarter to now sit squarely in negative territory (-19).
  • Despite this, expectations for forward work schedules largely held, declining only slightly for the June quarter, down one index point to 31 – the lowest level since March 2013.
  • The outlook for staffing levels also largely held across all states, with a 4 index point drop on the previous quarter, except NSW where this halved to 11 index points.
  • For the first time in two and a half years, survey respondents forecast a fall in interest rates over the next 12 months.
  • There was a moderation in concerns around the availability of debt finance over the next 12 months, although most respondents still felt it would continue to be difficult to access finance.
  • Office capital growth expectations remain positive overall, decreasing by just 1 index point. Industrial capital growth expectations remained strong, Hotel growth expectations fell by 3 index points although remains in positive territory. Retail capital growth expectations were negative for the fourth consecutive quarter, falling by 9 index points. Retirement living remained in positive territory although was down by 8 index points on the previous quarter.
  • All sectors recorded falls in construction activity expectations, except for office and industrial.
  • Economic growth was identified as the most critical issue for the federal government (28%), followed by housing affordability (23%), cities and infrastructure (15%) and the newly-included issue for this survey of population growth and migration (12%).

Read more about the results here.