Easing sentiment offset by strong cap growth

Victorian business sentiment has eased slightly despite continued buoyancy in property capital growth expectations during the June 2016 quarter.

The latest ANZ/Property Council Survey shows Victorian respondents’ sentiment declined three points to 137 on the index for the June 2016 quarter.

The total index score for Australia held steady at 131 for the June quarter. A score of 100 is considered neutral.

The ANZ/Property Council Survey is the nation’s leading measure of confidence in the property industry and polled almost 1,700 respondents for their forward-looking views.

Property Council Victorian Deputy Executive Director, Asher Judah, said Victoria’s easing sentiment reflected an industry in transition.

“On one hand, capital growth expectations and foreign investor interest remains very strong, pointing to continued strength across the industry,” said Mr Judah. Conversely, residential construction expectations are steadying after a very strong run, giving some operators pause.

“The latest ANZ/Property Council Survey reveals Victorian residential construction activity expectations have fallen 26 points over the past eighteen months with a 1.2 point decline occurring in the June 2016 quarter.

“This easing continues to be offset by robust housing, office, retail and industrial capital growth expectations driven by strong foreign investor interest.

“These subtle shifts in sentiment, activity and growth expectations need to be carefully considered by both investors and policy makers alike.

“Foreign and domestic investors have a wide variety of global investment choices available to them. The State Government should be mindful of this when finalising their policy settings for next week’s State Budget.”

Fast Facts:

  • Victorian index score: declined three points to 137 from the March 2016 quarter to the June 2016 quarter;
  • Capital growth expectations: capital growth expectations for housing, office, retail and industrial each reported positive sentiment of 15.3, 11.1, 11.7 and 7.8 respectively;
  • Foreign property sales: foreign property sales in residential, office, retail and industrial comprised 28, 21, 18 and 15 per cent of total sales in the June quarter respectively; and
  • Residential construction activity expectations (Victoria): continued its easing trend with a decline of 1.2 points in the June 2016 quarter.

 

Media contact:  Asher Judah | M 0499 841 715 |   E ajudah@propertycouncil.com.au